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AI existential risk probabilities are (still) too unreliable to inform policy

Via AI Snake Oil
Monday, Sep 28, 2026 · 11:13AM
Summary

Over two years ago we wrote a detailed deconstruction of p(doom) and argued that its primary effect is to launder vague intuitions and fears through a facade of quantification. The essay has fresh relevance today as p(doom) rhetoric is driving public discourse and policy attention to an unprecedente

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